Tháng Một 18, 2021

Under 2.5 Goals Strategy (How To Make An Income Trading Football on the Betfair Exchange)

[Music] so I can't believe that I'm about to say this but football is back and I know that there are many many other important things going on in the world at the moment but I don't think it's such a bad thing to be excited about a little bit of entertainment coming back in our lives and obviously that income stream coming back into our lives as well and to celebrate that in this video right here I want to walk you through my under 2.

5 goal strategy okay but before we get into it please remember to subscribe to the video and hit the bell to stay up to date with all of the notifications for the videos as and when I release them because I'm going to be releasing a whole heap of different strategies in the coming weeks and months and I'm sure you're not going to want to miss any single one of them okay so under two point five goals trading how do we go about well first of all we need to understand what it is that we're doing and what it is that we're benefiting from now unlike some of my other strategies like the lay the draw back the favor and things like that where we're searching for goals to be scored and typically we're looking for these goals to be scored in the second half this is a first half strategy this is a strategy where actually we don't want any goals to be scored at all we're going to benefit from the fact there no girls are going to be scored towards the beginning of the game now what we're looking for is we're looking for games where the markets are expecting goals and right so if we go to the under 2.

5 goals market we can see that the price is above 2.

0 and probably closer to 2.

25 and 2 point 5 0 tends to give us the best results alright so we want the market to expect goals to be scored but from our research we can then see that actually whilst goals may be scored and whilst these teams tend to have games they've finished over two and a half goals actually towards the beginning of the game there aren't that many goals scored and that's what we benefit from we benefit from the time decay that occurs and the price dropping in that under 2.

5 goals market allowing us to get sin 2 back at a high price and obviously gradually lay as the price gets lower and lower and lower thereby guaranteeing us a profit ok and instead of talking you through this and kind of giving you a whole load of gobbledygook and not really showing you how things work I've decided to do things a little bit differently and just jump straight to the back first screen and walk you through one of these trades in real time so let's jump over to that and I'll come back to you after we finish the trade so here we are with an under two point five goals trade I've actually got involved in the Werder Bremen versus Leverkusen game and as you can see here on the right I'm in there with a stake of 200 pounds and a potential profit of 288 pounds before commissions obviously and I got in there as I said a price of 2.

4 for what's important to remember about the prices that we're seeing here in this strategy and actually football trading in general was that this isn't necessarily my my risk and this isn't going to be my profit either you see if things go against me I will get out of this position for significantly less than that two hundred pound that's showing there but by the same token I'm going to trade out of this very quickly as well so that's not going to be my profit I'm not going to walk out with two hundred and eighty-two pounds here typically speaking the losses that we'll be looking at are roughly twenty to thirty percent of the stake and the profits are also twenty to thirty percent and the idea of this strategy really is to be in and out as quickly as possible we're looking for games where the markets are expecting more than two and a half goals but at the same time we don't believe that those goals will be scored too early on in the game so we think that there will be a slow start to this to the game and this price over here will come down allowing us to trade out little increments therefore obviously mitigating our risk and securing some profits so what I'm going to do is I'll walk you through this as and when the game develops and obviously as and when I trade out to my position so this is where we are to start with I'm going to come back to you when I trade out the first part of my position okay so there's been a relatively slow start to the game there is some suing in from' but it's looking like a little bit of a bitty game there so what I'm going to do is I'm going to trade out of part of my position to start with what I'd like to do usually is wait until I get roughly five ish percent profit on the table which you can see here so 10 pounds from a 200 pound stake it's just all 13 pounds as it is now it's just over 5% profit and what I want to do is kind of get rid of some of my wrists so that if a goal does go in that I'm not going to be risking my whole state then what I'll typically do is get out there at about a 20% increment at this particular stage of the game depending on how price moves which let me just put this on a moment just get that in there well if that's get taken and what I typically do is I just kind of keep an eye on the price here we can see that we've got taken out two point two four there as the market just dropped down a little bit and as I was just saying so what I look to do here is I kind of keep an eye on this price here so look at the price chart and I want to see it coming down nice nicely and steadily I don't want any sorts of big moves to the upside or sideways price action because what that indicates is that the game is actually a little bit lively and potentially there is a goal to be had on the table and what I will do here is are kind of come out between ten to twenty five thirty percent increments as I said depending on what that price looks like so if it's very very choppy I'm going to get more off of the table as soon as I can but if it's coming down quite steadily and the game from there in place that's and things like that is looking like it is a steady game there's no one that's really causing too much sort of calm art too much harm to one another so you know it doesn't look like one team is looking score is about to score then I'll leave it on for that little bit more and try to get a little bit more profit out of these trades so I'll come back to you which actually looks like it's going to be in the next few minutes I'll come back to you when I take a little bit more off of the table so as you can see we're six minutes into the game now the prices drop to two point one eight or just risen above that's two point two zero the price does fluctuate a little bit like that but as you remember we got in initially at two point four four so the the markets dropped about twenty four now twenty six ticks and what I want to do is try and get rid of more of my risks I've got a hundred and sixty pounds on there and I want to slowly but surely get rid of that to a point where even if a goal is scored I'll be looking a very very little loss there and obviously I'll hopefully be able to trade out as a profit but we don't know how that will go we can only just trade the strategy and watch the pricing kind of hope for the best because a goal potentially can go in at any point obviously and what we do have these strategies here is that we want to put ourselves in the best place or the best situation to be able to take advantage of the market moves and to be able to get out at a profit or minimize our loss if we are looking at a loss and obviously as traders losses is something that you have to think about we're never going to avoid losses we just need to make sure that over the long run our strategies are obviously profitable and this strategy really is a profitable one it's a very consistent one if you get the match selection correct alright so anyway I'm now out of 40% of my position as you can see there so initially we had 200 pounds on the table we were looking at about a 288 pound profit but as I said at the beginning we're not looking to take a 200 pound loss or make 288 pounds we're roughly looking to make between sort of 20 to 30 ish percent profit on the initial stake and if we do take a loss Lord forbid then that usually is roughly around 20 to 30 percent as well so quite a good reward to risk ratio the only downside to this is if a goal is scored really really early on in the game so in the first few minutes before you get an opportunity to get any of your steak off the table then that can get a little bit hairy and you're looking more at a so like a 50 60 percent loss but they those occasions are kind of few and far between they do happen but as I said in the long run this is a very profitable strategy if we just stick to the strategy so I'll come back again when I take a little bit more off the table so now we have roughly 15% profit on the table there you'll remember that we got in 200 pounds initially that was our initial stake or initial risk and the market is up at 30 pounds which is 15 percent of that so what I'm going to go and do is I'm going to go and get rid of a little bit more of my liability so slowly but surely bringing down that liability there and as I said always trying to mitigate the risk that's the secret with this strategy here you can be seduced into thinking you know what I'll just leave the position on I'll leave as much fun as I can for as long as I can and what ends up happening is you get into a situation where you need really quite high winrate to be able to make up for the losses because with this strategy here if an early goal does go in or a goal does go in when you've got your full risk on the table then you're looking at a more hefty loss than you need to survive sort of coming out these increments you know regular intervals you're able to mitigate that risk so that you ensure that if a gold does go in we're not looking in a loss that you would be looking at if you had your entire stake on the table okay so the moment we've got 15% profit on the table we've now just got the 80 pounds risk there which won't be if the goal does go in it won't be an 80 pounds loss it will we'll be looking at will be somewhere around the 30 40 pound mark which is great because that'll be around 15 to 20 percent of our initial state which is what I searched at the beginning is where we want to be because we want to make sure they're you know our risk and our losses are small and our winds are obviously consistent and at least equal to our average loss size which obviously this this should be so well I'll come back to in a minute when I trade out of the the next part of my position so we're coming up to the 15th minute mark and the the profit that I have here available to me is roughly about 20 percent of my initial state which is what I said they're typically we're looking for between 20 to 30 percent I've still got 40 percent of my position at risk here so what I'm going to go and do is I'm going to go and remove another 20 percent of that so put them forward to here which is literally going to leave me of just a very very tiny bit of risk on the table there but obviously with the potential to eke out a little bit more profit from this particular trade typically speaking I don't like to be in the markets for too too long or too close to the 20 minute mark because you know what I've seen in my experience is if the goal is going to go in in the you know early-ish in the second half around the 20 minute mark seems to be the sweet spot for whatever reason so as we approached that particular time regardless of where I am in terms of the profit here on the table I'll go ahead and get rid of the the rest of my position I'm just before we do get to that point and I thought it would be useful to also talk about some other options that you have available to you so when you get to that point we can either cash out of the entire position over here and take whatever profits on the table which will guarantee us a profit against both outcome so regardless of whether it finishes under 2.

5 goals or over 2.

5 goals I'll have that guaranteed profit on the table the other option that you have available to you if you feel like the game is is playing out in a way that it will finish under two and a half goals but you kind of don't want to take the risk is you can kind of just lay the last part of your position do that here but I could lay the last part of my position there and what that will allow me to do is this you can see take all of my risk off the table but give me the opportunity to make that little bit more profit from the trade if it does go on to finish under two and a half goals however as I said for the most part when we're trading here what we're looking to do is really just guarantee small bits of profit but do it often as opposed to take a view on what the outcome of the game or of that particular market is going to be okay so we're getting close now to the 20th minute mark we're at 17 minutes here we can see that the market is at 45 pounds so we're nearly at 25 percent profit which is about the sweet spot in terms of where I would typically take profit as we get a little bit closer to there and as the markets move towards a twentieth minute I will then look to exit this position if we take a very quick look at the price chart it's been a pretty good game for us there were a couple of sideways bits of price action but that was short-lived in the market has for the most part dropped allowing us to take some nice and consistent profits I've been trading out here at 20 percent increments but it's obviously up to you guys as to what you feel best with you know as I said at the beginning you may decide that you want to trade out small increments or if the game's really choppy if the game's really Lively I'm in the market so the price chart is choppy sorry but the game is lively then you might want to come out with a little bit more a little bit more quickly so to get rid of your risk because it looks likely that a goal may be scored okay so I'll come back to you when I get out of my final part of my position here okay so as we approach the 20th minute mark now I'm going to go ahead and get rid of the whole position there what I'm going to do to do that is simply collect this cash out button at the top here so it shows me how much profit I have here this is including any commissions that will be taken that will obviously help be dependent on your commission plan that you're that you have a bet fair but this is a total profit that I'm going to get from this particular trade when I go ahead and close it as I said to you just now the other options that you have available to you would be to lay the other parts of your particular trade and obviously leave a little bit so you've got no risk on the table but you we could squeeze that little bit more profit out of this particular trade but what I like to do really is just guarantee those profits short and sharp and move on to the next trade and this is you know fantastic strategy for the beginners out there you know the main thing that you need with this is just to find those games where the markets are expecting goal so you want the price to be somewhere above 2.

25 if it can get closer to 2.

5 oh that's fantastic on the under 2.

5 goals market so the markets are expecting goals there but from your research you don't expect there to be a gold back early on in the game you think there both teams will kind of it'll be a cagey affair to start with then you'll be able to do exactly what we've done here which is cash out for little increments you know slowly but surely and eventually come out of your position for a nice overall profit okay so I hope you enjoyed this video here I hope it made sense and you see the value in trading the under 2.

5 goal strategy so there you have the under 2.

5 goal strategy in a nutshell and fortunately it played out the way that we wanted it to which was we are we're able to make a profit at the end of the day we have to remember as traders so that we're not going to make money on every single trade you are going to have somewhere you're going to have to take a loss but that's just the nature of the business ok with this strategy right here you're going to find that you'll have a very very high winrate but you are going to take that odd loss from time to time and sometimes those losses are going to be quite significant so instead of you know 30 to 40 percent which or 20 to 30 percent which is the average loss we'll be looking at if a goal goes in very very early on so within the first few minutes of the game before you manage to get any of your position off the table you will be looking at a 50 to 60 percent loss but the important thing is there if you get your match selection correct those sorts of occurrences are few and far between and you know most importantly this is a very very profitable strategy in fact this is one of my go-to strategies if I'm having a hard time with everything else that I'm trading so let's say for example I'm having a bit of a losing streak with my lathe a draw strategy or than my back the favorite strategy this is always one that I can go to and kind of just build confidence again build the bank again and things like that so go back over this video as many times as you want post a comment beneath the video ask me any questions that you that you have about particular strategy here but definitely go and give it a try because I promise you you will not be disappointed and this will become a very very valuable weapon in your arsenal of trading strategies okay so quick reminder if you haven't subscribed to the channel make sure that you're subscribed and you hit the bell to stay up to date with all of my videos as and when I release a video you get a little notification and I will see you in the next video take care now.

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