Tháng Chín 23, 2020

Football betting and trading | The 'secret' formula that predicts the outcome of a football match

so if you're betting on football you'retrying to profit from football in any way through gambling you're bettertrading you have a bet fair football trading strategy of some sort you'regonna need to know how many goals are going to be scored in a match and whatpercentage chance there is of that occurring because if you know that thenyou've got a chance at being profitable now fortunately there is actually awonderful little formula that you can use that will allow you to get to someof those answers and that's what we're going to discuss in this video if you'reinterested in learning to trade on bed fare then visit the BET Angel Academywhere you have detailed structured Betfair trading courses or why not visitour website where you can download a free trial of bet angel professional butalso visit the forum where you can get detailed images examples anddownloadable files and don't forget to subscribe to our You Tube channel andclick on the bell icon if you want notification of new videos as they'rereleased so this video is going to be a follow up to another video that I did soin the previous video which you much watch if you haven't watched it you canwatch it after this one is basically looking at the league tables looking atthe forum and then joining up and creating a rating off of the back ofthat and that particular rating they were looking at was the number of girlsthat are likely to be scored within the match but on that video we had aparticular problem which was hey you know we know on average there are goingto be two point four goals in this game but what does that mean you know whatchance is there of that occurring and that was where that previous videofinished was because we've got that particular rating but we didn't have anumber that we could stick on it didn't have a percentage that we could actuallyput on it so I said on that previous video that if people are interestedliked it comment and I would do the follow-up and here is follow up so ifyou look at any couple match you know what we're doing is for going throughthe steps that you require to come up with an idea of what sort of stretcheryou should deploy in that match but also you know looking for the right matchstrategy selection is one thing identifying the match selection isanother and then the two go hand-in-hand that's how you profit in the long termyou basically join up all of those pieces to create the opportunity youdon't have to use one strategy on every single match and hope to profit what youdo is you create a strategy then you identify matches where that strategywould work best that is how you make money in the long term so I'm downstairsin my office at the moment and in one of the corners we have various bits ofmemorabilia from various things that I've done with in the past and on one ofthese shelves we've actually got a zx81 and sat next to the city thinking one isa Rothman's football yearbook and that was an important part of my life whichis why it's on there it's a constant reminder as to where I started but if wewonder stuffs back turn when I was at sort of school in college I was in thiswas the birth of all of the home computing era everything was amazing andmarvelous at that particular moment in time and with my little aesthetics 81 Ilearned to do some basic coding basic house concisely coding basically it'sbecause it was basic which is why the same basic rather than basicallyhopefully you understand where I'm coming fromand then I sort of progressed upwards from there but the funny thing was thefirst thing I did when I had a computer was I started pumping in loads ofStatistics I have no idea why I did that because also tucked underneath my zx81you can see it just in the corner was my school report and I was rubbish at mathsit wasn't the fact that I was rubbish in that it was the fact that I reallydidn't care much for it I really had no sort of desire or anything give me afootball a cricket bat and tennis rackets anything to do with sport and Iwould you know I used to love sport but give me a piece of paper and ask me todo some even moderately simple maths and I would just switch off and I justwasn't interested so I kept my school report from all those years ago becauseit's just shows you that you can't predict how somebody's going to turn outyou just have no idea it's too early at that stage I'll always give people thebenefit of the doubt and the world if they're keen to learn because it'samazing what people can achieve when they've got some energy enthusiasmdrive so when I first got my own computer I basically started pumping indatabases of football stats just because that's how I was refining and learninghow to program in basic ins and stuff like that and it interested me so Istarted plugging in loads of data looking at football matches trying tounderstand exactly what created the outcome of a football match you knowcould you predict things could you identify what was likely to happen andmatch all of those sort of things and I just used to play around endlessly withall of those variables and built up a huge database and you know I used someof that data to start making an optimizing entries into the footballpools which I eventually want to first dividend under towards the game that'sanother video if you want to know how I did that but ultimately what I've doneis created this huge database of stats and some basic bits of modeling and I'dlearned things such as you know on average there's gonna be this number ofgirls and in this match they're probably going to be more honest I'm actuallygoing to be less and I've done all of that sort of work in terms of being ableto identify and shape the overall look and feel and format but then I ran intoa problem because I could tell it they were going to be you know an average oftwo point three goals in a match or two point seven but it didn't mean anythingit's like you know so okay I've worked out on average this is what's probablygoing to happen so what's the chance that there will be no goals within thisparticular match you know how did how do I take that number of two point three ortwo point eight or whatever number the stats throw out and convert that into apercentage and I was stumped I just had no clue as to exactly what how toparticularly do that I knew that the average was here and this was unusualand that was unusual but I couldn't figure out which was the best way to beable to come up with some stats that would know a percentage on because ifyou have a percentage you can sort of say okay these are the in the top tenpercent these are in the bottom and you can sort of start playing around anddoing all of those sort of things from there and say yeah I had to solve thatproblem so what did I do well back in the day when there was nointernet the only option and available to you was to go to thelibrary so for anybody that lives in this part of the world you may find itinteresting but I used to go to Farah Library in Hampshire and I would spendmany many hours there they clawing through all of the maths books and allof the books on probability started at the absolute basics and then justgradually worked my way up to try and improve my overall understanding ofprobability and I was looking at probability density functions normaldistributions variations of different types of distributions I was learningabout Leonard Euler Bernoulli Laplace all of these things Bayes were goingthrough mine and it was curious for me because it was an epiphany for mebecause up until that point I thought the maths was dry dull and had noresonance in the real world but when I started digging a little bit deeper intoit I suddenly uncovered this beauty now if you've never been through that youwill not understand but I'm sure there will be people out there that willunderstand but when you discover that maths can describe things so well thatthis beauty emerges from it this will make you laugh but one Valentine's Dayfrom my wife I bought her the following thing that you can see on the left it'sa document that has been something that has been written on a page of algebraand there you can see exactly what it is but what this is is Euler's identitythis is called in mathematical terms and it's considered to be the most beautifulequation in mathematics because it ties in a number of things it ties in e theimaginary number I pi and then merges them all togetherand it is a thing of beauty and it's difficult if you've never gone down thisroute to understand just how beautiful that is but I began to discover that infact mathematics did have a certain level of beauty to it it seems very coldas a subject but when you dig deeper you begin to understand all sorts ofinteresting things now the most important thing about this particularequation is the number e e is a transcendental number when I firstdiscovered that it was a transcendental numberI thought transcendental it's like a hippie smoking weedbasically I didn't have no idea who they had a place in mathematics but if youfind it in a lot of mathematics and when I discovered it this was the moment thatlike the penny dropped and everything starts to open up because I startedusing it and seeing the way that it was used in many different things likecompound interest and in normal distribution and in various other thingsand I was thinking wow this is you know why did they not teach me this at schooland it was probably considered you know way up here and if you never learnedthis then there's no reason for you to learn that but what actually happened tome was I started to figure out where it's being used and started to like goup and down the entire chain and across and backwards and got really enthusedabout it which is quite difficult when you've got no reference point there wasnobody I could refer to or that would particularly help me and especially whenI told them I was looking to predict football matchesyou know nobody had any real interest nobody in my family or immediate familyhad any sort of academic background so I sort of on my own really in ferrandlibrary just trying to read up on this sort of stuff but the interesting thingabout this is as I was going down this path it was I was going through allthese textbooks that were giving examples of its usage and one of themwas about the occurrence of events so it's basically saying if you have anaverage number of things here if you perform this calculation it will tellyou the chance that if you've got an average of two of something that youwill see an average of one or you'll see three or you'll see four and I wassuddenly thinking hmm hold on a second girls this is telling me the chance ofthe number of goals that I've got based upon an average and of course thatalready works as the average if you watch the previous video in this seriesyou will know what the average is so I then figured out it was like a discoveryto me but of course it had been on for 300 years or however long but if youraised e to the negative power of the mean then you would actually get anumber so what I did was I looked at the calculation and I raised e to thenegative two point five which would be two and a half goals and then lo andbehold it popped out with 8.

2% so 2.

71828and so on ^ negative two and a half out pops8.

2% and if you convert that into odds it comes out to about twelve to twelveand a half in decimal odds that you would see on the exchange and when I sawthat I knew exactly what I was looking at I was looking at the chance of nilnil occurring within a match the chance of there being no goals given an averagenumber of goals within a match and so like when that happened it was just mymind was blowing because I suddenly realized what I had in front of me Icould actually forecast if I had all of those statistics the chance of a matchending up at nil nil and of course if you do one minus that you end up thechance not being nil nil you can work it both ways that's the wonder of anequation is you can fiddle around with it and look at various differententities so yeah it's I've sort of given it to you there but maybe what we shoulddo is actually bring up a graph so you can understand the relationship of whatwhat occurs because the graph describes it beautifully but also a graph can workin two directions so let's bring up the graph of that particular equation and Ican talk you through exactly what you're looking at so if we look at this graphon the x-axis it runs from 1.

75 to 325 so this is theaverage number of goals within the match itself so we're saying we've done all ofthe stats we've looked at thousands of matches at the most recent form we'vecome up with this average and this is basically the number of average goals weexpect in this match it was played say 100 times or something so if we look attwo and a half this is saying we think that they're going to be two and a halfgoals in this match what's the chance of there being no gods and on the y-axisthe one that runs from top to bottom that is actually the number of the oddsof this occurring so we're converting 8.

2 percent into decimal odds and thenyou can actually see if we draw a line from two and a half across and you cansee this is where we end up it between twelve and twelve and a half so you cansee here a fewer number of girls there's more chance because the odds are shorterof nil-nil occurring and the more number of gods you can seethe price goes up now if we actually look at this this makes perfect sensemore girls in a mesh less chance of it being nil nil less girls more chance ofit being nil nil but can you see how the graph slopes and how in fact this worksin both directions so if you actually look at this graph you can do it theother way around so say you you can't be bothered to do all of the calculationsand you look at the previous form and all of the data today and you lookacross different leagues and the Farish but if he can't be bothered to do all ofthat work if you go into a betting market and you look at the set of oddsyou can actually draw a line across the graph and down which we will now do andthat will actually show you the chance that the match will end up or how manygoals are being discounted into the match sorry so if we look at odds of 20and we follow the line across and we go down you can see that that isdiscounting the number of goals as being around three goals per match so when yourealize what this equation does in the fact that you can invert it you suddenlyhave a powerful little tool because if you work out your own ratings you canthen convert it into a percentage which you can then convert into odds or youcan do it the other around you can look at the market go yeah there's thisnumber of girls likely within this particular match and then hey presto allof a sudden I had that percentage that I was looking for now you can actuallytake this and move it on to a nother level if you want to and again that'sgoing to require on the video so if you liked the previous one you liked thisone then give me a like and some morecomments and I can elaborate further we can take you further down the path butbasically what you're looking at here is a sort of quite a simple formula to getto where you want to be if you want to do this formula in Excel then what youwould do is you basically type in equals tower open bracket you type in thetranscendental number E which is 2.

71828 we'll keep it short for moment comma thenumber average number of goals that you're forecasting press Enterand help pops a number which you can then convert into a percentage it'sreally that simple I know it sounds too simple to be true but that's basicallywhat it is but there are some give some caveats in here as well because we'renot taking account of differences between the home when you're waiting sowhat were effectively saying here is this is an evenly matched team that thetwo teams are evenly matched and therefore the number of goals is goingto be spread equally between these two when in reality isn't quite like thatif the away team is slightly stronger or the home team is slightly stronger thenyou would tend to sort of askew it and slightly further up or down based uponwhat you expect to see but again maybe we this is something we should discussin another video but from a betting or trading perspective the great thingabout this is you can actually now a number on it you can sort of say wellthere's going to be an X percent chance of this number of goals occuring withinimagine as in there will be goals or they will not be goals within this matchso obviously if you're looking at backing in under two and a half goalstretches you're looking at time decay you want that number to be as small aspossible but if you're at the other end of spectrum and you want goals then youwant the number to be as large as possible as in the awesomenil nil being as high as they possibly can but also you can use it to look atyour ratings and then look at the market and see what that has told you and ifthere's a gap between the two I think you've spotted value or you haven'taccounted for something that perhaps the market is whatever way you look at itit's going to give you information and also you can look at things from adifferent perspective as well so if the average number of goals is going to besmaller then the odds will be shorter on the nil mill but that will tell you thatthe average mean return time for a goal should be a lot longer in other wordsthey're not expecting many goals within the match and if they're equallydistributed throughout the match and there will be a big gap in between godsand I will see if it's higher than that that gap begins to shorten down I hopeI've explained that in a reasonable sense in terms of how you practicallyapply that to what strategy you have within the market but yeah it turns outactually that the formula for predicting whether there are going to be girls inthe match or not is actually quite simple there are a few more nuanceswithin there that I would need to explain inreal depth but if you're looking for a rough and ready calculation as to howthe number of goals within a match converts into a percentage then theformula really is that simple I discovered it quite a few years agowould have been late 80s when I first sort of stumbled into it and startedusing it effectively and ever since then I've basically continually refined allof the models that I use but if you're looking for some simple magic formulathat allows you to predict things within a football match then there you gogiving you a little bit of the story in the background behind it but I've alsomore importantly giving you that formula that you can use and play around withwhen you look at next betting or trading on a football match I hope that's beenhelpful for you and if you want to hear more in this series you'll be going alittle bit more depth like the video leave some comments below and I'llproduce the next video in this series you.

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