so perhaps you have a bet fair tradingstrategy revolving around football or perhaps you're looking at some bettingtips on a football match and you're trying to decide what you should dothere's one key metric in football that's obviously critically importantand that is is a goal going to be scored and if you're looking at a series ofmatches you know which matches are more likely to produce goals than others wellfortunately there is an answer I can describe it to you and that's what I'mgoing to do in this video if you're interested in learning to trade on betfair then visit the betting j'l Academy where you have detailed structured betfair trading courses or why not visit our website where you can download afree trial of bet angel professional but also visit the forum where you can getdetailed images examples and downloadable files and don't forget tosubscribe to our You Tube channel and click on the bell icon if you wantnotification of new videos as they're released so we're looking at a set offootball matches here and my question to you is which one of these matches isleast likely to have a goal within it if you look at the set of matches thatwe've built here you can see that there are a variety of different oddsdifferent teams different ends of the table you know there's a whole mixtureso we also have this situation we have Burnley Crystal Palace and SheppardUnited at home roughly similar odds so which one of these has more goals in itthan the other how can you possibly tell well there is a solution and that's whatwe're going to be talking through in this video um it could actually be twovideos and so there are a couple of sort of when we reach the end of this video Ialmost sort of recorded another section straight after it but it would make thevideo too long so I've cut it at this particular point and if you want to knowthe solution to the second problem that we have when we reach the end of thisvideo then like comment tell me that you'd be interested in seeing it and Ican talk you through what would really be part two of this video because it'squite an expansive topic and so I've deliberately limited it to oneparticular problem in this video but you can see here that we've got a variety ofmatches and we need to rank them in order of the least number of goals andwithin match to the most number of girls andthe reason that you do that is when you're betting or Betfair trading whereyou're deploying any strategy where you're betting on football what you'reattempting to do is find God's you know if you're if you have a strategy thatrelies upon lots of gold's within a match if you have three or four goldswithin a match they're going to occur in a smaller time interval but if you havea match where there's going to be very few goals then any goal that does occurwill be over a very long time period so it's important to do this you need tounderstand where other goal is going to come how busy when the underlying matchwill be but you also need to understand that football's very variable so we'reonly going to be saying on average here and that sort of would be part two ofthe video which would be able to stick this very precise number on that butwhat we're more concerned about here is how do we figure out which one of thesematches is more likely to produce kills on this particular day we're not sayingthat it will definitely but we're just saying on average over period of timewhat is there lot more likely scenario so let us explore that particularscenario so we're looking here at a league table and you can see that we'vegot Liverpool at the top and Norwich at the bottom and that is no coincidencebecause the teams are ordered in terms of the number of matches that they'vewon the number of points that they've scored and of course in order to win amatch you have to score goals so typically you would expect teams at thetop of the league to score more goals than teams at the bottom but thatdoesn't help you solve one specific problem here which is that if one teamis playing another it has to be a combination of the two so what we'resort of saying here is that Norwich generally score fewer goals than theyconcede on average and really when you're looking at the question of howmany goals are going to be scored within a match it's a combination of the twothe inset that I've got here is basically showing you the very top ofthe division and what I'd like to draw your attention to is what we actuallysee within the columns towards the Embera says goals so you can see thatLiverpool have scored 61 goals and conceded 15 Manchester City have scored67 and conceded 25 and it's this information that we're going to use totry and construct a model that will allow us to predict roughly how manygoals were likely to see within any particular match within theleague but this is typically where you start bring up the league table look atall of the data within there and start to form an opinion on how many goals youthink could be scored in any particular match so this next slide what I've doneis I've actually put some information in the middle of the screen that will allowyou to understand how we're combining these sort of statistics together andwe're looking at this initially from a top level I have to do this so that youcan really understand exactly what we're attempting to do and how we'reattempting to do it but we can see here that we've put the top team against thebottom you know the biggest contrast that we can get in the league and we'regoing to try and work out how many goals on average is scored during anindividual game and you'd expect that to be sort of relatively high naturallybecause we're saying that there's a really strong team and a really weakteam so it's a good contrast to start with to understand what we're looking atso on the right-hand side of the screen on your left on my right as I'm pointingyou will actually see so if I if I point over here this is the side of the screenI'm indicating that you should be looking at a set figures so you can see61 1567 29:54 26 and that's indicating the top three teams of which the top isLiverpool so we're saying they've scored 51 goals and conceded 15 which you cansee we've entered into the data on the spreadsheet that you can see behind meso in total there have been 76 goals in games that they have played and theyhave played 26 games so on average there are two point nine two goals per gameroughly three goals per game if Liverpool are playing now if we lookat Norwich we can see that they've scored 24 but conceded 48 and that's thedata that you can see on the other side that's the bottom of the division and ifwe add those together we can see that there are 72 goals in total spread over26 matches and therefore we end up with just short of 2.

8 goals per game if weadd those two together what you will see is that we actually end up with 2.

8 5goals so you would expect on average around sort of 3 goals per gameif Liverpool met Norwich it's a suspect that maybe it would be three nilor to one but you you can get an idea of roughly what we would expect to see in amatch like this in contrast you can see we put a couple of other examples onhere as well I haven't cross-referenced them onto theleague table you can do that if you want that's the reason that I'm doing thisvideo but you can see basically the Crystal Palace have scored 55 goals in26 games arsenal have scored 17 26 games we've added those together and dividedthem by 2 so 2 point 1 2 + 2 point 6 9 which is the averages for each teamdivided by 2 is 2.

4 so you can see if those two teams played each other you'dexpect a smaller number of average goals and at the bottom of that list we've gotCrystal Palace and New Castle we've gone through the same process of adding upthe number of girls that they've scored and you can see that that's even lowerso you can see that matching up different teams up and down the leaguewill give you different results and this sort of makes perfect sense because thematch with Liverpool and Norwich there are likely to be more goals than betweenCrystal Palace and Newcastle or Crystal Palace and Arsenal but you can begin toget a feel for how a match is sort of more likely to pan out in terms of thenumber of girls by using this sort of data so I don't know if you've spottedthe floor with what we're doing at the moment but we're sort of grouping teamstogether we're not taking their relative strengths and there's a problem withthat because you know while a team is good at home they may not be good awayand vice-versa and you know just combining the total number of goalswithin a match doesn't take into account the strength of the home and waiting andthe fact is you know you do see deviations in this I can totallyresonate with this and this season that I'm doing this video in because at homeSouthampton are absolutely atrocious they just cannot win at home they'veonly won 3 games over the course of the season so far and their ranking isbottom of that home league table so what you're seeing behind me here is the homeand away tables and basically it's ranking all of the teams according tohow well they have performed either home or away and you can see the Hampton atotally at the bottom at home they just can't seem to win and at the other endLiverpool can't seem to lose but the funny thing is you look at sirHampton playing away and you can see actually their away form is pretty goodquite bizarrely I have some theories as to why this is the case but that wouldbe for another video and I think I know how I would stop this as well and I'msurprised at the coaching staff as oh Hampton can't see the same thing anywaylike I said that's another debate and I'm getting all a motive here as I serveHampton fam but basically if you organize the league tables according tothe home-and-away form you'll get a much better picture and the reason for thisis what we will see on the next slide so we've done in this slide you if welooked at Liverpool V Norwich on a previous slide and we basically notedthat there would be about two point eight five goals however you can seewhat we've done on this particular slide here is we have added up a number ofdifferent things and we have basically come up with a slightly different figureand the reason for this is we are now taking Liverpool's home record andcomparing it to Norwich is away record so here you can see the Liverpool havescored 35 at home and conceded 9 when they've played there for a total of 44over 13 games which is 3.

38 which is pretty impressiveto be honest 44 games football games 44 girls over 13 games is a pretty bignumber but you can see Norwich here you can see it says scored 22 but I need toexplain exactly we've done here because what we've done is because Norwich arethey waiting we've inverted those goal ratesso basically Norwich have scored and six goals away from home and conceded 22 sowhat we're doing is we're saying we're giving those 22 to Liverpool and we'resaying that the number of the Liverpool conceit will add 6 on because it'sNorwich and that's how many they have scored away so can you say we've donethat we flipped we've inverted the two around and this gives us a much betterrepresentation of what we think could possibly occur so when we add these upand then divide them to work out with an average you can actually see it comesout at two point seven seven and in fact the number of goals that Liverpool arelikely to concede or their opposition sorry the number of goals that Liverpoolare likely to score and their opposition concedeup to 35 plus 22 and therefore we're talking about sort of an average ofabout two girls again that Liverpool score but the away team may score onaverage about half a goal adding up to two point seven seven we can see there'sa big difference here between the number of girls that Liverpool score andconcede at home and therefore this is fairly significant but you can see whatwe've done is we basically worked out the average number of girls are going tobe scored the number that are going to be scored by Liverpool and also thenumber the Liverpool score above the away team so they basically have a homesupremacy of one point six two golds on average and we can actually convertthose numbers into a percentage and the chance of there being no goals in thisparticular match is six points to seven percent all that would be odds of aboutsixteen in total I'll come on to this again in a secondbut can you see what we've done here we've taken the home form we've takentheir wave form and then we've merged the two together to come up with a muchmore accurate model so now we've looked at something in theory let's look at thepractical reality of a particular market so this is a market that's taking placetoday it's Crystal Palace V Newcastle and you can see we've gone through thesame process again we basically said well Crystal Palace have scored tengoals at home they've conceded 13 newcastle have scored 12 away whichwould then for invert into a number of conceded goals for Crystal Palace andthey've conceded 28 so you can immediately see when you start diggingthrough this detail you begin to get a little bit more texture and flavor to amarket so you can see the Crystal Palace can't really score and Newcastle seemedto concede away so that gives you a feel for how the match is likely to play outso we're sort of saying that Crystal Palace have a reasonable defense but nota very strong attack but you can see that newcastle have a bit of a leakydefense in essence it gives you a feel for what you think you should expect tosee within the match which you can then compare as the match actually getsunderway but overall you can see we've added these two together and it's comingout at two point four two so it's basically saying on average we expectthis match to have two point four two goals and what we're saying there is ifthis mattress played a hundred times the average number of goals would be twopoint four two because of course you can't get two point four goals in a gamebut can you see how all of that is inter playing we're basically saying that thisis the number that is key to us and putting that number and then ranking itagainst others will tell us is this the match that it's least likely to seegirls today or is it the match that is most likely to see girls today and thenyou can deploy a strategy straight into that match based upon the informationthat you've got now of course we need to convert that into odds if you're goingto do a bit of value betting so you can see here we've taken two point four twoand we've basically said that means that there's an eight point eight sevenpercent chance of there being no goals within this particular match how did wecome up with that number what magical formula did we use to convert 2.

42 intoeight point eight seven I almost did that calculation on thisvideo but when I started putting it onto slides and doing the narration for Ithought you know what this is an entirely different video because thereare so many different things to talk about how to perform that calculationbecause if you know that there are going to be eight point eight seven percentchance of no girls within a match then you can price up nil-nil you can say allthe odds should be about eleven point two eight now you don't need to worryspecifically when you watch this video about that and I'll show you why on thenext slide but if you are interested in how to dothat calculation because it's deceptively simple I can produce anentirely separate video for you talking specifically about that because we havetwo stages here one is working out how many goals that there are going to beand who's going to score them and then the next is converting it into a set ofodds so in this video I've given you that first part but if you're interestedin seeing a video where I convert them into a percentage and then into oddsthat you can bet into or trade against let me know and I will produce aseparate video now but you don't really need to worry about that too much let meshow you why so it's important to note at this particular moment in time thatin fact there is a tool that you can use within betangel that actually has a lotof this information in it already that does all of a hard work for youso we probably will enhance this at some point in the near future especially witha major football tournament coming up but when you look at soccer mystic itwill actually do some of these calculations for you if you go intothere it will look and calculate how many golds it thinks there are in themarket or what the market is forecasting and then it will actually go on and giveyou some pods and data surrounding that so this is using a similar methodologynot exactly the same but you'll always find that there's a slight differentialbetween the two prices because soccer mystic is pricing it to 100% book andthe market is never at 100% so you always see that little bit ofdifferential there but if you're sort of thinking well you know at the end ofthis video how can I get more informationwell soccer mystic actually has some of that data that you require in this overusing it to scan through a few matches over a range of matches on anyparticular day will give you a decent clue anyway as will the market and it'smore important on this particular video that you understand exactly what you'relooking at and the way that is calculated because that's the basis onwhich you can build a model the system a process or a niche but yeah have a lookat soccer mystic because that does contain some information that we'rediscussing in this video anyhow so we now come to the conclusion ofdoing this across number of matches I could do the whole video comparing andcross comparing and adding together and all of that but that would take abouthalf an hour to 45 minutes and I don't think either of us have time for that soI've truncated it all and basically put it into a little table for you here andwhat the state was showing you is what the market thinks is the chance of amatch having no goal and the and what we've just calculated using the exactmethods that I have just laid out for you so you can see the market thinksthat the highest chance of a nil nil in other words their match not having agoal is palace against Leicester and the least chance is Leicester against ManCity but you can see that if we compare that to our calculations you can see itmatches almost exactly so almost exactly because the market can't split SheffordUnited and the Burnley match because both of those matches there basicallyhave the odds are about the same but we can rank it because we've actually donethe detail behind it and we can actually put it in order but the most importantthing with using a method like this rather than just looking at the marketor trying to look at the maken just go well you know that's that's sort offairly obvious whatever it is that you're actually sticking a number on itand then that's so important because if you're pursuing a strategy that you wantit at a small number of goals then obviously you choose palace' Newcastlebut you can now say if we meet this criteria if there's an average of thisnumber of goals within again this is what I'm going to deploy the strategyand at the other end of the table you can say and if there are going to belots of goals within a match which in this case the market and us they areagreeing that it's Leicester against Man City then you can say and this is mybarrier my hurdle for that particular strategy in this particular market andif you find none of those at either end of the scale then you can just ignore itso it's the ability to quantify that going through a process like this givesyou and the ability to actually price up and figure out if you've got an edgebecause if you bet or trade a system into a market that you have identifiedthen over a period of time if you've got an edge you'll see that beginning togrow the amount of bank that you've gotten if you haven't got an edge you'llsee it going backwards and into reverse and then you'll have to tweak thestrategy one or another but the advantage of going through thesecalculations is you actually have a model on which to base your assumptionsyou're not guessing basically in the overall scheme of things now of coursethe model that I presented here is something that I learned to do about 30odd years ago and I have refined it endlessly ever since so you know thereare extremes that you can go to or you can keep it as simple as possible butgenerally you know how could you refine something that we're doing here so forexample we've used the entire league over the course of the season so far butmaybe you want to incorporate short term form into that or maybe there's aninjury to a player or a change in manager or there could be a number ofdifferent factors to put into play here which means that you have to tweak themodel up and down and this is something that you can do and also you'll getbetter at with a level of experience so I know given certain scenarios howthat's likely to affect the team or if I see a change in in the way that the teamis playing or something then I may just bump up or bump down some of thesestatistics rather than just lying upon the historical data that yousee within the league however what I presented for you here hopefully givesyou a good view on a model that will allow you to look at matches that arelikely to be lower scoring or higher scoring and you can actually turn thisinto a percentage so if you want me to turn it into a percentage and show youthe calculations to do that so you can actually stick a definitive number on itthat's an entirely separate video which you know if you've got a game thatyou're forecasting that there are going to be three goals in all 2.

2 or 2.

7 ortwo how does that translate into a percentage you know and what can youthere there are lots of clever things that you can do from that particularpoint on how could you actually stick an exact number on it in terms of what theodds should or shouldn't be if you want to see that video and then make sure youcomment and like on this one and tell me that you're interested and I will do afollow-up video where not only will we calculate how many goals that there arewithin a football match we will actually tell you what the odds should be basedupon the number of goals that we are likely to see so yeah let me know if youwant to see that video but I hope that this one has been helpful for you you.